Will Israel Attack Iran? Probably and here is why.

It is a significant question and one that probably needs some in-depth research.  Currently most of the western news media are reporting that this is imminent, obviously the Israelis are more than concerned about Iran's growing nuclear capability and feel as though a pre-emptive strike may be the best way to settle the issue.

One report this week, I think it was from RT stated "what Isreal does not  understand is that this militarist rhetoric in the Middle East, and an attack on Iran could lead to a catastrophic war in the region".

Mmmm - lets face it they are not that stupid.  They know exactly what the result of an attack is - let us get to the balanced scorecard later.  Before we go there - lets say they did attack tomorrow morning at 9am.

So Israel sends over some jets and bombs the hell out of Iran for a few days - in effect declaring war.    Iran could strike back of course, certainly any attack would be on their own - Iran has no support within the Arab world these days with the possible exception of Syria.    

It may be that they could get Syria to join in - highly unlikely but on the fringes of possibly.  If Syria did chime in that would only give the green card for a NATO attack on Damascus, which would be an early Christmas present for NATO.

We are unsure as to how Iran could strike back at Israel, its long-range missiles are not as sexy and new as they once were and it's a hell of a long march from Tehran to Tel Aviv.  

Ok lets put that information aside for the moment and come back to it - lets look at what is going on outside of this at the moment.  Lets for starters look at what this Nuclear issue really is.

The IAEA doesn't really have any intelligence capabilities of its own, so if its got its ear to the wall listening to Isreal and the United States intelligence agency a misinformed decision could be the best we could hope for. 

The UN atomic watchdog is about to report on Iran's nuclear activities and provide evidence that Tehran has built a testing facility and computer models of warheads. Iran has dismissed all allegations calling them fabricated. Former CIA officer Philip Giraldi says Iranian bomb only exists in US policymakers' heads.  US policy makers that are heavily influenced by Isreal it would be fair to say.

This week Dmirtry Medvedev chimed in as his statements came during the joint press conference with his German counterpart. Russia has been voicing strong words against an attack on Iran, following statements by Israel that a strike is more likely than diplomacy.

The West continues to increase pressure on Tehran over its suspected nuclear program. But will the latest set of sanctions help it reach its goals? Some experts believe the measures will only fuel nationalistic feelings in Iran and boost the regime.  Certainly all signals are pointing to this with the Iranian news media broadcasting slightly more anti-American that normal.

David Lindorff, founder of the news blog "This Can't Be Happening", believes that pressure coming from the US and Israel could merely encourage Tehran to obtain nuclear weapons. That is certainly more logical - if you are about to catch a bullet in your arse it seems only practicable that you will start waving around your own gun.

Again that's pretty unlikely - unless the Pakistanis donate some which I don't think will happen the chances of Iran setting off mushroom clouds are very very very low.  

Of course lets not forget the big hullabaloo in 2009 when Israel was again all set to attack Iran based on similar reports.    Could it simply be that the United States need some distracting media engagement about something else outside of its own backyard whilst it  gets on with pepper spraying kids in the face and smacks dangerous young ladies with placards over the head with batons?

It could be that the US wants to send out a message to China all be it quietly - the political equivalent of "Look who is in my gang, with some political chest beating and distracting sidelines whilst that they re-arrange some key pieces on the chess board.

So will Israel attack Iran, I don't want to side track - they would be fucking nuts if they did that's for sure, but you know what the whole world is nuts so I don't think that is a valid reason for them not to attack.

Israel  may decide to slap down Iran in the same way a bully slaps down a kid in the schoolyard.  

Of course what they do know is that without the capability to attack Israel in its own back yard then it could goad the Iranians into attacking US assets in Iraq.   It is at this point when the discussion gets a lot darker.

If Iran attacks facilities in Iraq then the USA would be able to start beating down on Iran with all just cause - even though it was the Israeli's that started it, the USA will certainly be the ones to finish it.  Would the USA put up with such madness?  Yeah i think they would welcome it - lets be honest.  

So let us look on this as a balanced score card - firstly from the Israeli position.

Lets imagine that this conversation between Benjamin Netanyahu and his security minister Ehud Barak.

Ben - Do we attack Iran or shall we have another hummus sandwich?

What about the USA - By having Israel strike first the USA will not have any blame on their hands, they know that Iran is very likely to strike USA assets in the gulf in retaliation if - and it is a big IF - Iran was that stupid. 

That would allow the USA to justify retaliation without having to build up some nonsensical WMD plot as with Iraq.  Which funnily enough is what they have used to get us to this exact point.

If the Iranians did attack it would simply be a matter of -" Well they attacked us and we had to march into Tehran and kick their arse".

Of course the fringe benefit of putting Iran into line is huge for the western world - Iran has a lot of oil.  So much Oil in fact that the target of the latest sanctions are aimed at Iran's petrochemical industry and its oil and gas business.

This is literally the last thing that the USA could sanction - considering the entire structure or Iran's economy is based on sanctions it may not have a massive impact on Iran, but boy will it hurt the West.  It's the economic equivalent of jamming a ball pen in your own eyeball because someone is looking at you kind of funny.

Where these sanctions will have an effect is on the pump in the USA and in Europe and with prices flying up due to extra sanctions on oil due to Iran's evil nuclear plot it could help the average Joe in the street support an attack.  This is just a thought - but lets face it its not unthinkable.

Ok - I still haven't answered the question.  Will Israel and the USA attack Iran - Answer the question!  Ok - here goes.  

Oil prices could surge to $175-200 per barrel if Israel attacks Iran's nuclear facilities, which is going to be good for the Oil business.  Another long stage combat operation overseas will generate a lot of cash for the Military Industrial Complex, this would be a big one its certainly one of the larger deals that could be constructed.  And of course for Europe's and Americas future - certainly a nice big fat pipeline from Iran through Iraq and Syria - (read my is the CIA in Syria post) would be good for business whilst at the same time keeping the resources under our control and keeping China and India out in the cold.  Does the Military Industrial Complex exist or am i slipping into conspiricy theories here?

So my answer is a resounding YES - probably. 

The only thing that could stop it?  The American and European people - deciding that they don't want any part of it, and starting to make significant trouble at home- and I am taking about much more than the OWS movement. 

You see an expanded military engagement in Iran generates more military jobs, generates more wealth for the super rich people back home whilst their workers 18-year-old sons and daughters and millions of poor Iranians are getting blown to smithereens.

As we know thanks to our friends at Occupy Wall Street it will not be the people that are benefiting from the money that are  required to send their kids to war.  It will be your average Joe that has to accept his kid back from afar in a box, certainly you wont see many politicians, arms tycoons, bankers or oil magnets sending their kids off to fight.

What else could stop it?  Iran could just realize when they are beaten and come to the table now and try to make it just a little worse for themselves.  To be quite honest they are absolutely screwed any which way you paint it, the Iranian people could start a massive uprising now Egypt style, but that's unlikely as well. I think we are just going to have to watch this one unfold.

Of course - The other thing that could make a dent is research into zero point energy, but that wouldn't be anywhere near as profitable.

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